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  The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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  There are a number of possible explanations for this.
  
  One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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  “If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
  Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.
  
  Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”
  
  Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.
  
  Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.
  
  “The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.
  
  Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.
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• Комментировать Воскресенье, 13 Июль 2025 21:47 написал DarrickNow

  Today was supposed to be the day that President Donald Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries kicked in after a three-month delay, absent trade deals. But their introduction has been postponed, again.
  
  The new, August 1 deadline prolongs uncertainty for businesses but also gives America’s trading partners more time to strike trade deals with the United States, avoiding the hefty levies.
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  Mainstream economists would probably cheer that outcome. Most have long disliked tariffs and can point to research showing they harm the countries that impose them, including the workers and consumers in those economies. And although they also recognize the problems free trade can create, high tariffs are rarely seen as the solution.
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  Trump’s tariffs so far have not meaningfully boosted US inflation, slowed the economy or hurt jobs growth. Inflation is “the dog that didn’t bark,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent likes to say. But economists argue inflation and jobs will have a delayed reaction to tariffs that could start to get ugly toward the end of the year, and that the current calm before the impending storm has provided the administration with a false sense of security.
  
  “The positives (of free trade) outweigh the negatives, even in rich countries,” Antonio Fatas, an economics professor at business school INSEAD, told CNN. “I think in the US, the country has benefited from being open, Europe has benefited from being open.”
  
  Consumers lose out
  Tariffs are taxes on imports and their most direct typical effect is to drive up costs for producers and prices for consumers.
  
  Around half of all US imports are purchases of so-called intermediate products, needed to make finished American goods, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
  
  “If you look at a Boeing aircraft, or an automobile manufactured in the US or Canada… it’s really internationally sourced,” Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College, said on the EconTalk podcast in May. And when American businesses have to pay more for imported components, it raises their costs, he added.
  
  Likewise, tariffs raise the cost of finished foreign goods for their American importers.
  
  “Then they have to pass that on to consumers in most instances, because they don’t have deep pockets where they can just absorb a 10 or 20 or 30% tariff,” Irwin said.
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  Unity and BrightBuilt factory-built homes share an important feature: They are airtight, part of what makes them 60% more efficient than a standard home. GO Logic says its homes are even more efficient, requiring very little energy to keep cool or warm.
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  “Everybody wants to be able to build a house that’s going to take less to heat and cool,” said Unity director Mark Hertzler.
  
  Home efficiency has other indirect benefits. The insulation and airtightness – aided by heat pumps and air exchangers – helps manage the movement of heat, air and moisture, which keeps fresh air circulating and mold growth at bay, according to Hertzler.
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  Buntel, a spring allergy sufferer, said his Somerville home’s air exchange has made a noticeable difference in the amount of pollen in the house. And customers have remarked on how quiet their homes are, due to their insulation.
  
  “I’m from New England, so I’ve always lived in drafty, uncomfortable, older houses,” Buntel said. “This is really amazing to me, how consistent it is throughout the year.”
  Some panelized home customers are choosing to build not just to reduce their carbon footprint, but because of the looming threat of a warming planet, and the stronger storms it brings.
  
  Burton DeWilde, a Unity homeowner based in Vermont, wanted to build a home that could withstand increasing climate impacts like severe flooding.
  
  “I think of myself as a preemptive climate refugee, which is maybe a loaded term, but I wasn’t willing to wait around for disaster to strike,” he told CNN.
  
  Sustainability is one of Unity’s founding principles, and the company builds houses with the goal of being all-electric.
  
  “We’re trying to eliminate fossil fuels and the need for fossil fuels,” Hertzler said.
  
  Goodson may drill oil by day, but the only fossil fuel he uses at home is diesel to power the house battery if the sun doesn’t shine for days. Goodson estimated he burned just 30 gallons of diesel last winter – hundreds of gallons less than Maine homeowners who burn oil to stay warm.
  
  “We have no power bill, no fuel bill, all the things that you would have in an on-grid house,” he said. “We pay for internet, and we pay property taxes, and that’s it.”